Entering April, the epidemic in many places in China has repeated, and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine continues. Affected by inflation, the epidemic, and geopolitics, the global demand for smartphones continues to weaken. According to the latest data from Sigmaintell in April, it is estimated that the overall global demand for smartphones will be lowered from 1.35 billion to 1.3 billion in 2022. The stocking plan of top set makers has also continued to decrease. On the supply side, Kioxia resumed production in the second quarter, and the overall supply and demand were relatively loose. Based on the latest survey data in April, Sigmaintell predicts that the price of embedded memory will remain stable in April as a whole.
Date:2022-05-07 Source:SigmaintellIn the second quarter, the global market fell into a "Double Anxiety" situation of the COVID-19 in China and the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. The "Butterfly Effect" caused by war and epidemic controlling logistics supply chain has negative effect onconsumers’ psychology and purchasing power, as well as the supply chain leadtime. According to Sigmaintell predicts, the demand scale from end market may meet an "over expected shrinkage" in the second quarter.
Date:2022-05-07 Source:SigmaintellAffected by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and the domestic epidemic control, the overall performance of smartphone sales in 22Q1 was weak, and consumers lacked motivation to change smartphone. According to Sigmaintell data, the global smartphone shipments in 22Q1 will be around 300.6 million, YoY declined around 10.4%. Among them, the domestic smartphone market shipments will be approximately 74.3 million units, and the decline in the domestic market exceeded that of the overseas market.
More than a year after the COVID-19, the global notebook PC panel (hereinafter referred to as "notebook panel") market has experienced ups and downs. From the perspective of demand, the notebook market can be said to be the category of consumer electronics products that has been driven the most by the “epidemic dividend”. According to Sigmaintell’s data, global notebook panel shipments in the first half of 2021 are 137 million, with an increase of 37% YoY. The annual shipment volume is expected to reach 262 million pieces, with an increase of 13.8% YoY, which is the highest annual shipment scale since the birth of this category.
Driven by the COVID-19 and proactive fiscal policies, the global TV market has experienced a year-long period of high growth, which has also stimulated the growth of overseas market capacity. With the change in fiscal policy for the popularization of vaccines, terminal demand in the TV market is likely to usher in cooling down, pushing brand stocking back to rationality.
According to Sigmaintell's data, the panel stocking demand of the top 9 global brands are constantly adjusted as the pace of shipment changes. Top brands panel purchase volume has entered a period of significant YoY growth from 20Q3, especially entering 2021. Under the catalysis of the accelerated increase in panel prices and the continued deterioration of supply, the top brands' panel purchasing number reached a rapid growth of 8% to 11% YoY.
As shown in the figure below, Sigmaintell’s second-quarter shipment monitoring data on the global monitor set market shows that the second-quarter shipment scale was about 35 million units, an increase of only 0.6% QoQ and only 2.3% YoY growth. The quarter with the lowest YoY growth rate in a single quarter. The performance of this shipment did not meet the expectations.
According to Sigmaintell data, a total of 40.85 million monitor panels were shipped globally in 21Q2, a decrease of 3.3% YoY during the boom period driven by the epidemic and an increase of 4.7% from the previous quarter. A total of 79.87 million units were shipped in the first half of the year, an increase of 8.5% YoY, and a decrease of 9.1% QoQ compared with the historical record refreshed in the second half of 2020. The shipment area was affected by the decline in shipments and the limited growth of large sizes. In the first half of the year, it totaled 13.37 million square meters, a decrease of 9.7% from the previous month.
The biggest contradiction between supply and demand is the mature manufacturing process that has rarely expanded capacity in the past few years. The surge in home demand in the post-epidemic era has further magnified the risk of IC shortages such as driver IC. According to the latest forecast by Sigmaintell, the global demand for driver IC sensors will increase to 8.54 billion in 2021, maintaining growth of about 7.7% YoY.
Halfway through 2021, the demand for the "consumption at home" derived from the outbreak of the COVID-19 and the promotion of proactive fiscal policies, the global TV market demand has ushered in more than four quarters of high growth. Entering the second half of 2021, the COVID-19 continues to have a profound impact on the global economic and political landscape, and the TV market demand has shown a significant weakening trend. According to Sigmaintell's data, it is expected that the global TV market shipment volume scale in the first half of 2021 is 108 million units, an increase of 6.1% YoY
In 21Q2, affected by the epidemic in Southeast Asia, global smartphone shipments show a downward trend compared to the previous quarter. However, due to the low base in the same period last year, there is still a YoY growth trend. According to Sigmaintell survey data, global smartphone shipments in the first half of 2021 are approximately 640 million, an increase of approximately 19.0% YoY, of which global smartphone shipments in 21Q2 are approximately 300 million, an increase of about 10.9% YoY. From a sub-regional perspective, the overseas market (excluding mainland China) ship approximately 220 million units in 21Q2, an increase of about 25.6% YoY. The recovery trend is obvious. However, the mainland China market lacks the motivation to replace aircraft. The cargo volume is approximately 79 million units, a decrease of about 16.4% YoY.
Revenue and the rate of display assemblies continued to increase, and shipments of automotive screens of before market increase by approximately 17% YoY
According to Sigmaintell’s data, global LCD TV panel shipment volume in the first half of 2021 was 131.5M, an increase of 3.8% based on YoY, and the shipment area increased by 11.4% YoY. The imbalance in the supply-demand relationship and the strategies adjustment from panel maker have driven panel prices to continue to rise, LCD TV panels have entered a highly profitable operating cycle. Based on these, panel makers become active in their expansion plans for existing capacity.
According to Sigmaintell’s data, global LCD TV panel shipment volume in the first half of 2021 was 131.5M, an increase of 3.8% based on YoY, and the shipment area increased by 11.4% YoY.
The capacity of high-pixel products has gradually increased, and product prices have further dropped due to factors such as cost dilution and channel inventory squeeze. It is expected that the price of high-pixel products will have a 6-8% drop in 21Q3.
For details, please refer to “Strong demand in 21Q1, and single-season shipments achieve a record high: Summary and outlook of the global smartphone panel market in 21Q1”. At the same time, it is expected that the global penetration rate of OLED smartphone panels will exceed 45% in 2023 (TLCM).
Entering the end of the second quarter, on the demand side, the Chinese market continues to be weak, the sales scale of the "6.18" promotion season drops by more than 20% based on YoY
On the demand side, the current demand is also declining. Sigmaintell expects that the overall price of tablet will show a steady trend in June. On the supply side, the supply of 10.1" WXGA will increase, and low-price competition will appear.
32", the demand for small size has gradually declined, and the price increases by US$2 in May. The price is expected to stop rising and stabilize in June.
The relationship between supply and demand is the fundamental factor that affecting price fluctuations. According to Sigmaintell's "supply and demand model" calculations, the global LCD TV panel market has continued to be in short supply since 20Q3, which has driven panel prices to continue to rise. Since the start of the rise in June 2020, LCD TV panel prices have ushered in the longest and largest rise cycle. Among them, the cumulative increase of 32" is as high as 1.5 times, the prices of 43", 50", and 55" have all doubled, and the prices of large sizes such as 65" and 75" have also increased by 30-60%.
Affected by the coronavirus, consumption at home in 2020 has increased the use frequency and duration of PC products. The new rigid demand for consumers to purchase and replace notebooks has pushed up the market. According to Sigmaintell's "Monthly Tracking Analysis Report on Chinese Notebook Online Market", the online notebook market sales are close to 15 million units in 2020, with sales exceeding 80 billion yuan, increased by 32% YOY.
