Both operation and profiting of makers are facing severe challenges. The global TV panel industry is facing unprecedented difficulties.
12.2% YoY Growth of TV Panel Capacity
In terms of large size, demand growth of end products continued to be lower than supply growth. From June to July, the price of 65" fell sharply. It is expected that the decline in August will be narrowed to less than $5.
32", the price drop in June is large, and it is expected to fall slightly by 1 dollar in July.
The market demand for Notebook panel had recovered at the end of the second quarter, the shortage of Intel CPU was eased. According to Sigmaintell’s prediction, the average Notebook panel price is likely to decrease by 0.1 USD in June and to be relative stable until July.
The escalation of trade friction has made the demand for export continued unclear, and the 6.18 off-season is less than expected, and brand manufacturers are facing the pressure of destocking. The above two factors have aggravated the pessimistic expectation of the LCD TV panel market.
China Shall Be One of The Most Potential Markets Thanks to The Both Demands for Device Popularization and Upgrading.Europe as the second largest one, its medical devices occupies about 30% of the global market, where Germany and France are the two main producers.
The overall market for mobile phones continued to decline. According to Sigmaintell's data, the shipments of mobile phone panels in the whole year of 2019 fell by about 4.5 percentage points Y-o-Y. In the overall economic downturn, the price of mobile phone panels lacks growth momentum and prices continue to decline.
Monitor panel:
The main brand inventory is still higher than average in March, and the demand of display panel is still weak because of the labor lack after the Chinese Spring Festival. Panel manufactures began to adjust the allocation of supply and production capacity. Some of the panel manufactures decreased the capacity allocation of monitor and increased the capacity allocation of TV in the 6th generation to the 8.5th generation. In general, except the productions of 23.6'', the decreasing amplitude of productions of 23.8'' and below has narrowed, while the decreasing amplitude of jumbo size productions is still high. Sigmaintell predicts that with the beginning of preparation for Chinese 6•18 shopping festival, the decreasing amplitude of small and medium size will narrow, the price of Opencell will gradually stop falling, but the productionswith jumbo size and high-resolution will continuously decrease.
The analysis of main size is as follows:
1. 21.5'', the demand of B2B market is weak, so the price will continue to fall. We predict that the average price of module in March will decrease $0.5, and the decreasing amplitude in April will narrow to $0.2. In Opencell, due to the supply adjustment of some panel manufactures and the high drop range in earlier days, it is predicted that the price will stop falling in March, and remain flat in April.
2. 23.8'', while the general demand of medium size productions gathers to productions of 23.8'', the shipment of latter ones in 2019 is predicted to be over those of 21.5''. At the same time, the average price of module will decrease $0.5 in March, and $0.4 in April; the average price of OC will decrease a little, about $0.2, and stop falling in April.
3. 27'', the market is still oversupplied, and panel manufacturers will gradually transfer their focus to high-resolution productions. It is predicted that the average price of IPS FHD module will decrease about $0.7 in March and maintain the same amplitude in April.
Notebook panel:
The market demand in the first quarter continues to be low while the inventory of those brand factories is still high. The shortage of Intel CPU has a great influence towards the stock of brand factories. Those brands reduce their demand, which means the panel manufactures should adjust the capacity allocation to reply it. Sigmaintell predicts that the average price of Notebook panel will decrease $0.3 to $0.4 in March, and $0.2 to $0.3 in April.
Ultra-size market accelerates its development since 2018, according to Report on Global TV Manufacturer Shipment and Supply Chain given by Sigmaintell, the global shipment of 70” and over TV in 2018 is 3.41 million sets with a year-on-year growth of 58.3%. As for ultra-size products, in spite of 86” in IWB market, 70”, 75”,82”and 85” all stand up to others as an equal.
In 2018, the shipment of global fingerprint chip declined by 18.8% year-on-year.
The report of Sigmaintell, Global Smartphone and Fingerprint Market Tracking & Forecast Report, shows that due to the overall demand of terminal’s decline and the competition of 3D facial recognition, the shipment of fingerprint chip is about 879 million, with 18.8% year-on-year decline.
Date:2019-03-19 Source:SigmaintellAfter the Spring Festival, the demand for brand stocking has warmed up, although on the one hand it is affected by the reduction in inventory, on the other hand, affected by the CPT event, the a-Si market price wants to rise.
On the demand side, for one thing, the inventory of brand manufacturers is still high, for another the mass production time of the Intel processor’s 10 nanometer process is uncertain, CPU shortage continues affecting the product structure of brand manufactories, so the stock of brand manufactories is conservative, and overall demand continues declining slightly. Sigmaintell predicts that the average price of notebook panels falls by $0.3 to $0.4 in February, and that the average price of notebook panels will maintain the same range of decline in March.
Global Vehicle sales declined year on year in 2018 due to the weakening environment
Influenced by factors such as trade protection and economic downturn, preliminary statistics of Sigmaintell shows that the global Vehicle sales volume in 2018 was about 95.3 million units, declined by 0.4% year on year. With the impact of weak global industry environment and the declining consumer confidence, global Vehicle sales are expected to remain basically unbiased in 2019.
According to the calculation based on “supply and demand model” of Sigmaintell, The global TV panel market was structurally unbalanced in the first quarter.Affected by the sharp adjustment of the previous price, the small and medium-sized prices gradually bottomed out. It is expected that the price will rise slightly in March. The large-scale production capacity will continue to increase, and the demand in the off-season will not be strong, and the price will continue to fall. The performance analysis of each size is as follows:
In 2018, the shipment volume of Notebook panel was about 184.6M, increased by 4.5% year on year.
According to Sigmaintell data, in 2018 the shipment of volume of Notebook panel was about 184.6M, increased by 4.5% year on year. The growth mainly comes from BOE/AUO/ Innolux/ LGD, which accounts for more than 90% of global shipments.
According to the calculation based on “supply and demand model” of Sigmaintell, Global panel supply &demand was loose in Q1, but the structure was divided, supply &demand of mid-small size was balanced; supply &demand of large size still imbalanced. Sigmaintell forecast that prices are heading towards differentiation, and price of mid-small size will stop falling, and large sizes continue to fall.
55", supply increase. supply &demand is loose, panel price will remain decline of $3 in Feb.
Oversea and domestic demand continue to drop, meanwhile panel makers maintain high loading rate, global LCD TV panel price remain decline trend, and small size panel price dropped a lot before, decline range will be narrowed in Dec, and Brands is active to prepare large size panels, price will decline slightly.
According to investigation and forecast done by Sigmaintell, global shipment of flat-panel television of the Q1 in 2018 is anticipated to be 51 million sets, which grows 2.6% on year-on-year basis.
According to the statistics of Sigmaintell, the global TV shipment in 2017 was 230M with year-on-year decline of 3.4%. At the beginning of 2018, the Indian government increased the import tariff of TV again. Chinese government enhanced the credit control and real estate control; the global monetary exchange rate had some turbulences.
According to the data from China Display Shipment Analysis by Sigmaintell, China eSports display shipment increases rapidly in the second half of 2017, with a 166% increase in the third quarter QoQ, a 90% increase in the fourth quarter QoQ and a shipment up to 450 thousand sets.